KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NOVAQ#237 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DEPO#120 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNOVAQ ban
57%50%
NOVAQ · 3 mapsedge NOVAQ +7%DEPO · 8 maps
Dust2NOVAQ pick
63%40%
NOVAQ · 4 mapsedge NOVAQ +23%DEPO · 6 maps
MirageNOVAQ ban
40%60%
NOVAQ · 1 mapedge DEPO +20%DEPO · 6 maps
OverpassDEPO pick
40%75%
NOVAQ · 1 mapedge DEPO +35%DEPO · 4 maps
InfernoDEPO ban
57%40%
NOVAQ · 3 mapsedge NOVAQ +17%DEPO · 1 map
AnubisDEPO ban
50%50%
NOVAQ · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DEPO · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNOVAQ remove Mirage
2. BanDEPO remove Inferno
3. PickNOVAQ take Dust2
4. PickDEPO take Overpass
5. BanDEPO remove Anubis
6. BanNOVAQ remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
NOVAQ 60%DEPO 40%
The model gave 60% on NOVAQ — the map was taken by NOVAQ.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
NOVAQ 28%DEPO 72%
The model gave 72% on DEPO — the map was taken by NOVAQ.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEPO · 51%
Series resultNOVAQ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2