CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
40%50%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 26 maps
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
60%32%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +28%Just Players · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%55%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Just Players +5%Just Players · 18 maps
NukeJust Players ban
50%47%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Just Players · 11 maps
OverpassBlack Phoenix ban
50%60%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 4 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
40%71%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge Just Players +31%Just Players · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Anubis
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Black Phoenix 40%Just Players 60%
The model gave 60% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Black Phoenix 78%Just Players 22%
The model gave 78% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 61%
Series resultJust Players 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2