Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NEW VISION#204 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arch#247 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEW VISION pick
37%67%
NEW VISION · 15 mapsedge Arch +30%Arch · 2 maps
Dust2NEW VISION ban
47%63%
NEW VISION · 11 mapsedge Arch +16%Arch · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
36%29%
NEW VISION · 10 mapsedge NEW VISION +7%Arch · 3 maps
MirageArch pick
44%50%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge Arch +6%Arch · 4 maps
NukeArch ban
42%50%
NEW VISION · 8 mapsedge Arch +8%Arch · 0 maps
InfernoNEW VISION ban
44%50%
NEW VISION · 5 mapsedge Arch +6%Arch · 0 maps
DefaultArch ban
60%50%
NEW VISION · 1 mapedge NEW VISION +10%Arch · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEW VISION remove Inferno
2. BanArch remove Nuke
3. PickNEW VISION take Ancient
4. PickArch take Mirage
5. BanArch remove Default
6. BanNEW VISION remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (36% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
NEW VISION 42%Arch 58%
The model gave 58% on Arch — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
NEW VISION 25%Arch 75%
The model gave 75% on Arch — the map was taken by NEW VISION.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEW VISION · 54%
Series resultNEW VISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2