Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacy#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
43%55%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Legacy +12%Legacy · 7 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
63%70%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Legacy +7%Legacy · 6 maps
AncientNatus Vincere pick
57%44%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%Legacy · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%63%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Legacy · 4 maps
NukeLegacy ban
40%38%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapnearly even +2%Legacy · 4 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
33%50%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge Legacy +17%Legacy · 0 maps
CacheNatus Vincere ban
50%50%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Legacy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
2. BanLegacy remove Anubis
3. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
4. PickLegacy take Inferno
5. BanLegacy remove Nuke
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Cache
DeciderMirage (63% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Natus Vincere 39%Legacy 61%
The model gave 61% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Natus Vincere 65%Legacy 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 64%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2