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NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
56%61%
G2 Ares · 12 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +5%Inner Circle Academy · 14 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
62%67%
G2 Ares · 17 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +5%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
47%54%
G2 Ares · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
58%40%
G2 Ares · 15 mapsedge G2 Ares +18%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
43%67%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +24%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy ban
57%67%
G2 Ares · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%42%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Anubis
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
G2 Ares 42%Inner Circle Academy 58%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
G2 Ares 48%Inner Circle Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction correct22:18
G2 Ares 50%Inner Circle Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 53%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3