KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALTAY#196 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ZWAW ban
40%50%
ALTAY · 1 mapedge ZWAW +10%ZWAW · 0 maps
MirageALTAY ban
50%40%
ALTAY · 0 mapsedge ALTAY +10%ZWAW · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALTAY remove Mirage
2. BanZWAW remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
ALTAY 47%ZWAW 53%
The model gave 53% on ZWAW — the map was taken by ZWAW.
Dust2prediction missed25:23
ALTAY 43%ZWAW 57%
The model gave 57% on ZWAW — the map was taken by ALTAY.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
ALTAY 60%ZWAW 40%
The model gave 60% on ALTAY — the map was taken by ALTAY.
Model check result
Model favoriteALTAY · 50%
Series resultALTAY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3