KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega#148 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
50%81%
Orda · 2 mapsedge Omega +31%Omega · 12 maps
AncientOrda ban
50%56%
Orda · 0 mapsedge Omega +6%Omega · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%50%
Orda · 1 mapedge Orda +10%Omega · 8 maps
NukeOmega ban
50%40%
Orda · 0 mapsedge Orda +10%Omega · 6 maps
OverpassOrda pick
50%25%
Orda · 0 mapsedge Orda +25%Omega · 4 maps
InfernoOmega ban
50%50%
Orda · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Omega · 2 maps
DefaultOrda ban
50%40%
Orda · 0 mapsedge Orda +10%Omega · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOrda remove Ancient
2. BanOmega remove Inferno
3. PickOrda take Overpass
4. PickOmega take Dust2
5. BanOmega remove Nuke
6. BanOrda remove Default
DeciderMirage (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Orda 21%Omega 79%
The model gave 79% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Orda 57%Omega 43%
The model gave 57% on Orda — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega · 75%
Series resultOmega 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2