KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DEPO#120 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
54%56%
Rune Eaters · 20 mapsnearly even -2%DEPO · 5 maps
Dust2Rune Eaters pick
57%33%
Rune Eaters · 19 mapsedge Rune Eaters +24%DEPO · 5 maps
AncientRune Eaters ban
47%55%
Rune Eaters · 15 mapsedge DEPO +8%DEPO · 7 maps
InfernoDEPO ban
43%50%
Rune Eaters · 10 mapsedge DEPO +7%DEPO · 0 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
33%75%
Rune Eaters · 2 mapsedge DEPO +42%DEPO · 4 maps
NukeDEPO ban
33%50%
Rune Eaters · 5 mapsedge DEPO +17%DEPO · 0 maps
DefaultDEPO pick
50%50%
Rune Eaters · 4 mapsnearly even +0%DEPO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
2. BanDEPO remove Nuke
3. PickRune Eaters take Dust2
4. PickDEPO take Default
5. BanDEPO remove Inferno
6. BanRune Eaters remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (54% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Rune Eaters 46%DEPO 54%
The model gave 54% on DEPO — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Rune Eaters 40%DEPO 60%
The model gave 60% on DEPO — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2