KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NOVAQ#237 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
81%63%
Omega · 12 mapsedge Omega +18%NOVAQ · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%50%
Omega · 11 mapsedge Omega +10%NOVAQ · 2 maps
MirageNOVAQ ban
50%40%
Omega · 8 mapsedge Omega +10%NOVAQ · 1 map
NukeNOVAQ ban
40%50%
Omega · 6 mapsedge NOVAQ +10%NOVAQ · 0 maps
OverpassOmega ban
25%40%
Omega · 4 mapsedge NOVAQ +15%NOVAQ · 1 map
InfernoOmega ban
60%50%
Omega · 1 mapedge Omega +10%NOVAQ · 2 maps
DefaultNOVAQ pick
40%50%
Omega · 1 mapedge NOVAQ +10%NOVAQ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Inferno
2. BanNOVAQ remove Mirage
3. PickOmega take Dust2
4. PickNOVAQ take Default
5. BanNOVAQ remove Nuke
6. BanOmega remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Omega 57%NOVAQ 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega — the map was taken by NOVAQ.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Omega 63%NOVAQ 37%
The model gave 63% on Omega — the map was taken by NOVAQ.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega · 62%
Series resultNOVAQ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2