StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
76%46%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 13 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +30%HEROIC · 9 maps
AncientHEROIC pick
50%71%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +21%HEROIC · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%45%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%HEROIC · 7 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
56%46%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +10%HEROIC · 9 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
33%57%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +24%HEROIC · 10 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 0 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
40%29%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 mapedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +11%HEROIC · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickHEROIC take Ancient
5. BanHEROIC remove Cache
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed12:16
Ninjas in Pyjamas 52%HEROIC 48%
The model gave 52% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Ninjas in Pyjamas 81%HEROIC 19%
The model gave 81% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 29%HEROIC 71%
The model gave 71% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 51%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3