KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · win 13:7series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 13:7
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2AimAssasins ban
81%50%
Omega · 12 mapsedge Omega +31%AimAssasins · 0 maps
AncientAimAssasins ban
57%50%
Omega · 10 mapsedge Omega +7%AimAssasins · 0 maps
MirageAimAssasins ban
50%50%
Omega · 8 mapsnearly even +0%AimAssasins · 0 maps
NukeOmega ban
40%50%
Omega · 6 mapsedge AimAssasins +10%AimAssasins · 0 maps
OverpassOmega ban
25%50%
Omega · 4 mapsedge AimAssasins +25%AimAssasins · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Omega · 1 mapedge AimAssasins +10%AimAssasins · 0 maps
InfernoOmega ban
60%50%
Omega · 1 mapedge Omega +10%AimAssasins · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Inferno
2. BanAimAssasins remove Dust2
3. BanOmega remove Overpass
4. BanAimAssasins remove Ancient
5. BanOmega remove Nuke
6. BanAimAssasins remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Omega 57%AimAssasins 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega · 75%
Series resultOmega 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1