StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHEROIC pick
36%46%
Astralis · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +10%HEROIC · 9 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
38%54%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge HEROIC +16%HEROIC · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%46%
Astralis · 2 mapsnearly even +4%HEROIC · 9 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
57%45%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +12%HEROIC · 7 maps
AncientAstralis pick
60%67%
Astralis · 6 mapsedge HEROIC +7%HEROIC · 2 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
50%29%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Astralis +21%HEROIC · 3 maps
OverpassAstralis ban
29%60%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge HEROIC +31%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC remove Cache
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickHEROIC take Nuke
5. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
6. BanAstralis remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Astralis 31%HEROIC 69%
The model gave 69% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Astralis 46%HEROIC 54%
The model gave 54% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 60%
Series resultHEROIC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2