Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%35%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge Lavked +8%ENCE · 16 maps
NukeENCE pick
36%59%
Lavked · 10 mapsedge ENCE +23%ENCE · 13 maps
AncientENCE ban
47%46%
Lavked · 11 mapsnearly even +1%ENCE · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%64%
Lavked · 11 mapsnearly even -4%ENCE · 7 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
56%40%
Lavked · 14 mapsedge Lavked +16%ENCE · 1 map
InfernoLavked ban
50%60%
Lavked · 2 mapsedge ENCE +10%ENCE · 6 maps
CacheLavked ban
40%63%
Lavked · 1 mapedge ENCE +23%ENCE · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanENCE remove Dust2
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Ancient
6. BanLavked remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (60% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Lavked 61%ENCE 39%
The model gave 61% on Lavked — the map was taken by ENCE.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Lavked 37%ENCE 63%
The model gave 63% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 50%
Series resultENCE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2