NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
63%50%
ex-RUBY · 28 mapsedge ex-RUBY +13%Vexar · 2 maps
AncientVexar pick
43%55%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsedge Vexar +12%Vexar · 7 maps
MirageVexar ban
58%33%
ex-RUBY · 22 mapsedge ex-RUBY +25%Vexar · 2 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
74%60%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsedge ex-RUBY +14%Vexar · 1 map
OverpassVexar ban
59%50%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +9%Vexar · 0 maps
Defaultex-RUBY ban
50%60%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 6 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%50%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Overpass
6. Banex-RUBY remove Default
DeciderDust2 (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
ex-RUBY 36%Vexar 64%
The model gave 64% on Vexar — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
ex-RUBY 75%Vexar 25%
The model gave 75% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 82%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2