CCT 2026 Europe Series 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ROUNDS#231 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
33%38%
megoshort · 8 mapsedge ROUNDS +5%ROUNDS · 4 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
30%71%
megoshort · 6 mapsedge ROUNDS +41%ROUNDS · 3 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
44%33%
megoshort · 5 mapsedge megoshort +11%ROUNDS · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%43%
megoshort · 3 mapsnearly even +0%ROUNDS · 3 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
33%50%
megoshort · 2 mapsedge ROUNDS +17%ROUNDS · 4 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%38%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +12%ROUNDS · 4 maps
AnubisROUNDS ban
60%50%
megoshort · 1 mapedge megoshort +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
3. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
4. PickROUNDS take Default
5. BanROUNDS remove Anubis
6. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (43% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
megoshort 48%ROUNDS 52%
The model gave 52% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by megoshort.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
megoshort 31%ROUNDS 69%
The model gave 69% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
megoshort 50%ROUNDS 50%
The model gave 50% on megoshort — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 58%
Series resultROUNDS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3