NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
CYBERSHOKE Prospects#140 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
56%71%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 14 mapsedge Honvéd +15%Honvéd · 17 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
60%52%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 6 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +8%Honvéd · 17 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE Prospects pick
69%58%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 9 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +11%Honvéd · 8 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
57%29%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 10 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE Prospects +28%Honvéd · 3 maps
NukeCYBERSHOKE Prospects ban
42%57%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 8 mapsedge Honvéd +15%Honvéd · 3 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
60%71%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +11%Honvéd · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%57%
CYBERSHOKE Prospects · 1 mapnearly even +3%Honvéd · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Nuke
2. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
3. PickCYBERSHOKE Prospects take Ancient
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. BanCYBERSHOKE Prospects remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
CYBERSHOKE Prospects 31%Honvéd 69%
The model gave 69% on Honvéd — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
CYBERSHOKE Prospects 64%Honvéd 36%
The model gave 64% on CYBERSHOKE Prospects — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE Prospects.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE Prospects · 61%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE Prospects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2