ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
benched gods#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
39%40%
EAC · 14 mapsnearly even -1%benched gods · 6 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
58%70%
EAC · 8 mapsedge benched gods +12%benched gods · 6 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
41%50%
EAC · 13 mapsedge benched gods +9%benched gods · 0 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
50%50%
EAC · 10 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 2 maps
AnubisEAC ban
56%38%
EAC · 5 mapsedge EAC +18%benched gods · 4 maps
InfernoEAC ban
20%57%
EAC · 6 mapsedge benched gods +37%benched gods · 3 maps
OverpassEAC pick
50%50%
EAC · 8 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEAC remove Inferno
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. PickEAC take Overpass
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
6. BanEAC remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (39% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
EAC 65%benched gods 35%
The model gave 65% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
EAC 53%benched gods 47%
The model gave 53% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteEAC · 70%
Series resultEAC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2