ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Olympusloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOlympus pick
64%67%
Marsborne · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Olympus · 2 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
71%40%
Marsborne · 10 mapsedge Marsborne +31%Olympus · 1 map
Dust2Marsborne ban
58%60%
Marsborne · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Olympus · 1 map
MirageOlympus ban
70%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Olympus · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Olympus · 2 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Olympus · 0 maps
OverpassOlympus ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Olympus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanOlympus remove Overpass
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickOlympus take Ancient
5. BanOlympus remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 54%Olympus 46%
The model gave 54% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 50%Olympus 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 73%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2