Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#52 in the world · win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
40%40%
Iberian Soul · 6 mapsnearly even +0%REVENIX · 1 map
MirageREVENIX pick
50%40%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsedge Iberian Soul +10%REVENIX · 1 map
InfernoREVENIX ban
71%50%
Iberian Soul · 3 mapsedge Iberian Soul +21%REVENIX · 0 maps
AnubisIberian Soul pick
60%40%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapedge Iberian Soul +20%REVENIX · 1 map
CacheIberian Soul ban
33%50%
Iberian Soul · 2 mapsedge REVENIX +17%REVENIX · 0 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%40%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +10%REVENIX · 1 map
NukeREVENIX ban
40%50%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapedge REVENIX +10%REVENIX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanREVENIX remove Inferno
3. PickIberian Soul take Anubis
4. PickREVENIX take Mirage
5. BanREVENIX remove Nuke
6. BanIberian Soul remove Cache
DeciderAncient (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Iberian Soul 47%REVENIX 53%
The model gave 53% on REVENIX — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Iberian Soul 43%REVENIX 57%
The model gave 57% on REVENIX — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 81%
Series resultIberian Soul 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2