Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#30 in the world · win 2:1series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
6666#157 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno6666 ban
50%18%
M80 · 6 mapsedge M80 +32%6666 · 7 maps
Ancient6666 pick
57%50%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +7%6666 · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
M80 · 2 mapsedge 6666 +7%6666 · 3 maps
Dust2M80 ban
29%40%
M80 · 3 mapsedge 6666 +11%6666 · 1 map
Anubis6666 ban
40%33%
M80 · 1 mapedge M80 +7%6666 · 2 maps
CacheM80 pick
57%50%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +7%6666 · 0 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%33%
M80 · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%6666 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. Ban6666 remove Inferno
3. PickM80 take Cache
4. Pick6666 take Ancient
5. Ban6666 remove Anubis
6. BanM80 remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
M80 54%6666 46%
The model gave 54% on M80 — the map was taken by 6666.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
M80 84%6666 16%
The model gave 84% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
M80 37%6666 63%
The model gave 63% on 6666 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 83%
Series resultM80 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3