Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LP#122 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLuminosity ban
29%47%
Luminosity · 3 mapsedge LP +18%LP · 11 maps
AncientLP pick
40%64%
Luminosity · 1 mapedge LP +24%LP · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%42%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge Luminosity +8%LP · 8 maps
Dust2LP ban
40%40%
Luminosity · 1 mapnearly even +0%LP · 6 maps
MirageLP ban
40%20%
Luminosity · 1 mapedge Luminosity +20%LP · 6 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
50%78%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge LP +28%LP · 5 maps
DefaultLuminosity pick
50%67%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge LP +17%LP · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanLP remove Mirage
3. PickLuminosity take Default
4. PickLP take Ancient
5. BanLP remove Dust2
6. BanLuminosity remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Luminosity 25%LP 75%
The model gave 75% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Luminosity 53%LP 47%
The model gave 53% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Luminosity 58%LP 42%
The model gave 58% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 75%
Series resultLuminosity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3