Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#122 in the world · win 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WBT#66 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLP pick
67%60%
LP · 11 mapsedge LP +7%WBT · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
36%50%
LP · 7 mapsedge WBT +14%WBT · 12 maps
MirageLP ban
20%43%
LP · 6 mapsedge WBT +23%WBT · 10 maps
NukeWBT pick
38%64%
LP · 9 mapsedge WBT +26%WBT · 7 maps
AnubisLP ban
50%56%
LP · 0 mapsedge WBT +6%WBT · 14 maps
InfernoWBT ban
47%60%
LP · 11 mapsedge WBT +13%WBT · 1 map
CacheWBT ban
78%33%
LP · 5 mapsedge LP +45%WBT · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Anubis
2. BanWBT remove Cache
3. PickLP take Ancient
4. PickWBT take Nuke
5. BanWBT remove Inferno
6. BanLP remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (36% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
LP 89%WBT 11%
The model gave 89% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
LP 23%WBT 77%
The model gave 77% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
LP 57%WBT 43%
The model gave 57% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 64%
Series resultLP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3