Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SAW#69 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%50%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge SAW +17%SAW · 6 maps
InfernoSAW pick
29%67%
Luminosity · 3 mapsedge SAW +38%SAW · 5 maps
Dust2Luminosity pick
50%38%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge Luminosity +12%SAW · 4 maps
NukeSAW ban
57%67%
Luminosity · 3 mapsedge SAW +10%SAW · 2 maps
AnubisSAW ban
50%43%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +7%SAW · 3 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
50%57%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge SAW +7%SAW · 3 maps
MirageLuminosity ban
40%67%
Luminosity · 1 mapedge SAW +27%SAW · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanSAW remove Anubis
3. PickLuminosity take Dust2
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Nuke
6. BanLuminosity remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Luminosity 15%SAW 85%
The model gave 85% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Luminosity 65%SAW 35%
The model gave 65% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Luminosity 40%SAW 60%
The model gave 60% on SAW — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 63%
Series resultLuminosity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3