Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#114 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UNiTY#73 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
53%53%
ENCE · 13 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 13 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%63%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge UNiTY +41%UNiTY · 15 maps
InfernoENCE pick
70%50%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge ENCE +20%UNiTY · 12 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
55%42%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +13%UNiTY · 8 maps
AnubisUNiTY pick
60%67%
ENCE · 6 mapsedge UNiTY +7%UNiTY · 8 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
46%29%
ENCE · 9 mapsedge ENCE +17%UNiTY · 3 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
50%43%
ENCE · 0 mapsedge ENCE +7%UNiTY · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickUNiTY take Anubis
5. BanUNiTY remove Cache
6. BanENCE remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (53% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
ENCE 54%UNiTY 46%
The model gave 54% on ENCE — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
ENCE 72%UNiTY 28%
The model gave 72% on ENCE — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 52%
Series resultUNiTY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2