ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LAG#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
75%58%
SportsBetExpert · 12 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%LAG · 8 maps
InfernoLAG ban
67%50%
SportsBetExpert · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%LAG · 8 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
86%42%
SportsBetExpert · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +44%LAG · 8 maps
Dust2LAG pick
46%58%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge LAG +12%LAG · 8 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert ban
60%75%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge LAG +15%LAG · 4 maps
CacheLAG ban
45%50%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsedge LAG +5%LAG · 0 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%60%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanLAG remove Cache
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Inferno
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (75% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
SportsBetExpert 90%LAG 10%
The model gave 90% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
SportsBetExpert 35%LAG 65%
The model gave 65% on LAG — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 63%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2