Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
63%55%
PCIFIC · 20 mapsedge PCIFIC +8%Honvéd · 36 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
50%53%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsnearly even -3%Honvéd · 28 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
45%33%
PCIFIC · 7 mapsedge PCIFIC +12%Honvéd · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%56%
PCIFIC · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +6%Honvéd · 5 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
67%40%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsedge PCIFIC +27%Honvéd · 11 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%50%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 14 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
33%50%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Honvéd · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
PCIFIC 44%Honvéd 56%
The model gave 56% on Honvéd — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
PCIFIC 65%Honvéd 35%
The model gave 65% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 54%
Series resultPCIFIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2