Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
M80#27 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%56%
Iberian Soul · 10 mapsedge M80 +6%M80 · 5 maps
InfernoIberian Soul pick
67%50%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsedge Iberian Soul +17%M80 · 8 maps
CacheM80 pick
38%63%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsedge M80 +25%M80 · 4 maps
MirageIberian Soul ban
50%43%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsedge Iberian Soul +7%M80 · 3 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%44%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +6%M80 · 5 maps
AnubisM80 ban
60%40%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapedge Iberian Soul +20%M80 · 1 map
NukeM80 ban
50%50%
Iberian Soul · 2 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickIberian Soul take Inferno
4. PickM80 take Cache
5. BanM80 remove Anubis
6. BanIberian Soul remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Iberian Soul 69%M80 31%
The model gave 69% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by M80.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
Iberian Soul 24%M80 76%
The model gave 76% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 70%
Series resultM80 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2