Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
75%42%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 20 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +33%UNiTY · 8 maps
Dust2UNiTY ban
61%47%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%UNiTY · 11 maps
InfernoUNiTY pick
71%53%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +18%UNiTY · 13 maps
Miragepossible decider
55%53%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsnearly even +2%UNiTY · 13 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
58%67%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge UNiTY +9%UNiTY · 8 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
65%29%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +36%UNiTY · 3 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%63%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge UNiTY +13%UNiTY · 15 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickUNiTY take Inferno
5. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (55% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 83%UNiTY 17%
The model gave 83% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
ex-Zero Tenacity 49%UNiTY 51%
The model gave 51% on UNiTY — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 69%UNiTY 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultUNiTY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3