Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Falcons Force#152 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageENCE ban
50%60%
ENCE · 14 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 6 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
43%40%
ENCE · 10 mapsnearly even +3%Falcons Force · 6 maps
InfernoENCE pick
64%58%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +6%Falcons Force · 8 maps
CacheFalcons Force pick
55%70%
ENCE · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +15%Falcons Force · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%57%
ENCE · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Falcons Force · 3 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%57%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +35%Falcons Force · 3 maps
DefaultFalcons Force ban
50%50%
ENCE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons Force · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickFalcons Force take Cache
5. BanFalcons Force remove Default
6. BanENCE remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
ENCE 47%Falcons Force 53%
The model gave 53% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by ENCE.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
ENCE 56%Falcons Force 44%
The model gave 56% on ENCE — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
ENCE 40%Falcons Force 60%
The model gave 60% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 61%
Series resultENCE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3