Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
50%47%
Illyrians · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Permitta · 15 maps
AncientPermitta ban
50%40%
Illyrians · 0 mapsedge Illyrians +10%Permitta · 11 maps
MirageIllyrians ban
40%62%
Illyrians · 1 mapedge Permitta +22%Permitta · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%60%
Illyrians · 0 mapsedge Permitta +10%Permitta · 6 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
50%70%
Illyrians · 0 mapsedge Permitta +20%Permitta · 6 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
40%25%
Illyrians · 1 mapedge Illyrians +15%Permitta · 4 maps
DefaultIllyrians pick
50%29%
Illyrians · 0 mapsedge Illyrians +21%Permitta · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIllyrians remove Cache
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickIllyrians take Default
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Ancient
6. BanIllyrians remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Illyrians 74%Permitta 26%
The model gave 74% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Permitta.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
Illyrians 37%Permitta 63%
The model gave 63% on Permitta — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Illyrians 29%Permitta 71%
The model gave 71% on Permitta — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 59%
Series resultIllyrians 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3