ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblers#197 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Omen#216 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
50%40%
Zomblers · 4 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Omen · 1 map
Dust2Zomblers ban
43%50%
Zomblers · 3 mapsedge Omen +7%Omen · 0 maps
NukeOmen ban
43%50%
Zomblers · 3 mapsedge Omen +7%Omen · 0 maps
MirageZomblers ban
60%40%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +20%Omen · 1 map
AncientOmen ban
60%50%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%Omen · 0 maps
DefaultOmen pick
60%50%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%Omen · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Dust2
2. BanOmen remove Ancient
3. PickZomblers take Inferno
4. PickOmen take Default
5. BanOmen remove Nuke
6. BanZomblers remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Zomblers 47%Omen 53%
The model gave 53% on Omen — the map was taken by Omen.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Zomblers 63%Omen 37%
The model gave 63% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Zomblers 60%Omen 40%
The model gave 60% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Omen.
Model check result
Model favoriteZomblers · 54%
Series resultOmen 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3