ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSlimy Boogermen pick
27%50%
NuTorious · 7 mapsedge Slimy Boogermen +23%Slimy Boogermen · 0 maps
InfernoNuTorious pick
36%50%
NuTorious · 7 mapsedge Slimy Boogermen +14%Slimy Boogermen · 0 maps
MirageSlimy Boogermen ban
60%50%
NuTorious · 6 mapsedge NuTorious +10%Slimy Boogermen · 0 maps
CacheSlimy Boogermen ban
43%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge Slimy Boogermen +7%Slimy Boogermen · 0 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
33%50%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge Slimy Boogermen +17%Slimy Boogermen · 0 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
33%50%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge Slimy Boogermen +17%Slimy Boogermen · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
2. BanSlimy Boogermen remove Mirage
3. PickNuTorious take Inferno
4. PickSlimy Boogermen take Ancient
5. BanSlimy Boogermen remove Cache
6. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
NuTorious 25%Slimy Boogermen 75%
The model gave 75% on Slimy Boogermen — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
NuTorious 36%Slimy Boogermen 64%
The model gave 64% on Slimy Boogermen — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 53%
Series resultNuTorious 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2