Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
50%73%
UNiTY · 14 mapsedge Phantom Academy +23%Phantom Academy · 11 maps
AncientUNiTY pick
63%45%
UNiTY · 15 mapsedge UNiTY +18%Phantom Academy · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
46%42%
UNiTY · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Phantom Academy · 8 maps
Dust2UNiTY ban
47%57%
UNiTY · 11 mapsedge Phantom Academy +10%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
56%50%
UNiTY · 14 mapsedge UNiTY +6%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
AnubisPhantom Academy ban
67%43%
UNiTY · 8 mapsedge UNiTY +24%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
29%56%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge Phantom Academy +27%Phantom Academy · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Anubis
6. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
DeciderCache (46% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
UNiTY 37%Phantom Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
UNiTY 70%Phantom Academy 30%
The model gave 70% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 66%
Series resultUNiTY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2