Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#135 in the worldseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start
benched gods#162 in the worldThe prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
63%45%
PCIFIC · 20 mapsedge PCIFIC +18%benched gods · 7 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
33%43%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsedge benched gods +10%benched gods · 10 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
67%63%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsnearly even +4%benched gods · 12 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
54%36%
PCIFIC · 9 mapsedge PCIFIC +18%benched gods · 7 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%50%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 12 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
50%50%
PCIFIC · 12 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
PCIFIC · 8 mapsedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
6. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 55%