Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Teletubisie#261 in the world · win 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
33%72%
Teletubisie · 2 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +39%ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 map
Dust2Teletubisie ban
60%61%
Teletubisie · 1 mapnearly even -1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 maps
NukeTeletubisie pick
60%65%
Teletubisie · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
InfernoTeletubisie ban
50%67%
Teletubisie · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 11 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
33%58%
Teletubisie · 2 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +25%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%54%
Teletubisie · 1 mapedge Teletubisie +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%58%
Teletubisie · 1 mapnearly even +2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTeletubisie remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
3. PickTeletubisie take Nuke
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanTeletubisie remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Teletubisie 46%ex-Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Teletubisie 55%ex-Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on Teletubisie — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultTeletubisie 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2