Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KAMUI#187 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageKAMUI pick
55%71%
ENCE · 16 mapsedge KAMUI +16%KAMUI · 3 maps
InfernoENCE pick
62%60%
ENCE · 9 mapsnearly even +2%KAMUI · 1 map
NukeKAMUI ban
43%50%
ENCE · 10 mapsedge KAMUI +7%KAMUI · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
ENCE · 8 mapsedge KAMUI +10%KAMUI · 1 map
AnubisKAMUI ban
50%50%
ENCE · 8 mapsnearly even +0%KAMUI · 0 maps
AncientENCE ban
22%40%
ENCE · 5 mapsedge KAMUI +18%KAMUI · 1 map
Dust2ENCE ban
63%40%
ENCE · 4 mapsedge ENCE +23%KAMUI · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanENCE remove Ancient
2. BanKAMUI remove Nuke
3. PickENCE take Inferno
4. PickKAMUI take Mirage
5. BanKAMUI remove Anubis
6. BanENCE remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
ENCE 53%KAMUI 47%
The model gave 53% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
ENCE 30%KAMUI 70%
The model gave 70% on KAMUI — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
ENCE 71%KAMUI 29%
The model gave 71% on ENCE — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 66%
Series resultKAMUI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3