Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%52%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +19%Honvéd · 38 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
50%49%
Falcons Force · 8 mapsnearly even +1%Honvéd · 31 map
InfernoHonvéd ban
62%35%
Falcons Force · 9 mapsedge Falcons Force +27%Honvéd · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%53%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Honvéd · 15 maps
CacheFalcons Force pick
73%40%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +33%Honvéd · 11 maps
DefaultFalcons Force ban
50%59%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +9%Honvéd · 13 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
67%45%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +22%Honvéd · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons Force take Cache
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons Force remove Default
DeciderAncient (57% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Falcons Force 41%Honvéd 59%
The model gave 59% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 59%
Series resultFalcons Force 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1