ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LAG#91 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Olympus ban
60%54%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Olympus +6%LAG · 9 maps
InfernoOlympus pick
50%50%
Olympus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 8 maps
MirageLAG ban
60%38%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Olympus +22%LAG · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%58%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge Olympus +9%LAG · 8 maps
AncientLAG ban
50%60%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 6 maps
AnubisLAG pick
33%75%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge LAG +42%LAG · 4 maps
DefaultOlympus ban
50%60%
Olympus · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Dust2
2. BanLAG remove Mirage
3. PickOlympus take Inferno
4. PickLAG take Anubis
5. BanLAG remove Ancient
6. BanOlympus remove Default
DeciderNuke (67% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Olympus 16%LAG 84%
The model gave 84% on LAG — the map was taken by Olympus.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Olympus 53%LAG 47%
The model gave 53% on Olympus — the map was taken by LAG.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Olympus 59%LAG 41%
The model gave 59% on Olympus — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 67%
Series resultLAG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3