ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
44%74%
For Fun · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +30%Overtake Sector · 15 maps
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
56%53%
For Fun · 5 mapsnearly even +3%Overtake Sector · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%46%
For Fun · 5 mapsnearly even -2%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AncientFor Fun pick
50%46%
For Fun · 4 mapsnearly even +4%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
For Fun · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
50%57%
For Fun · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
CacheFor Fun ban
50%63%
For Fun · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickFor Fun take Ancient
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
6. BanFor Fun remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (44% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed19:17
For Fun 20%Overtake Sector 80%
The model gave 80% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by For Fun.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
For Fun 57%Overtake Sector 43%
The model gave 57% on For Fun — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteFor Fun · 51%
Series resultFor Fun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2