Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
60%62%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 mapsnearly even -2%PCIFIC · 22 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
67%42%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +25%PCIFIC · 15 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
72%60%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +12%PCIFIC · 6 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
63%46%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%PCIFIC · 9 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
58%29%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +29%PCIFIC · 10 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
54%54%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsnearly even +0%PCIFIC · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
54%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%PCIFIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
2. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
5. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (54% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 69%PCIFIC 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 45%PCIFIC 55%
The model gave 55% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 73%PCIFIC 27%
The model gave 73% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3