Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoINOX Division pick
63%59%
INOX Division · 28 mapsnearly even +4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
68%68%
INOX Division · 21 mapnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
45%62%
INOX Division · 18 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 17 maps
CacheINOX Division ban
41%72%
INOX Division · 13 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +31%ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 map
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%50%
INOX Division · 21 mapedge INOX Division +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
67%58%
INOX Division · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +9%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
DefaultINOX Division ban
40%54%
INOX Division · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Cache
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanINOX Division remove Default
DeciderNuke (68% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
INOX Division 19%ex-Zero Tenacity 81%
The model gave 81% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
INOX Division 53%ex-Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on INOX Division — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 71%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2