Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WW#123 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWW ban
54%43%
Vexar · 22 mapsedge Vexar +11%WW · 3 maps
MirageVexar pick
59%57%
Vexar · 13 mapsnearly even +2%WW · 10 maps
Dust2WW pick
60%53%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Vexar +7%WW · 13 maps
NukeVexar ban
36%63%
Vexar · 10 mapsedge WW +27%WW · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
30%50%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge WW +20%WW · 6 maps
DefaultWW ban
50%50%
Vexar · 8 mapsnearly even +0%WW · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%60%
Vexar · 6 mapsnearly even +0%WW · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Anubis
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. PickVexar take Mirage
4. PickWW take Dust2
5. BanWW remove Default
6. BanVexar remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Vexar 27%WW 73%
The model gave 73% on WW — the map was taken by Vexar.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Vexar 54%WW 46%
The model gave 54% on Vexar — the map was taken by WW.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Vexar 52%WW 48%
The model gave 52% on Vexar — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 57%
Series resultWW 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3