Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
FaZe#14 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
46%56%
FaZe · 9 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 23 maps
Dust2FaZe ban
44%57%
FaZe · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +13%Nemiga · 19 maps
MirageFaZe ban
60%75%
FaZe · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +15%Nemiga · 16 maps
CacheFaZe pick
67%69%
FaZe · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Nemiga · 12 maps
NukeNemiga ban
63%67%
FaZe · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Nemiga · 14 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
50%74%
FaZe · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +24%Nemiga · 15 maps
DefaultNemiga ban
50%33%
FaZe · 0 mapsedge FaZe +17%Nemiga · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFaZe remove Dust2
2. BanNemiga remove Default
3. PickFaZe take Cache
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Nuke
6. BanFaZe remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (46% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct12:16
FaZe 31%Nemiga 69%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
FaZe 44%Nemiga 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 72%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2