StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
58%67%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge FOKUS +9%FOKUS · 11 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
42%36%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +6%FOKUS · 10 maps
InfernoFOKUS pick
42%63%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge FOKUS +21%FOKUS · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%FOKUS · 10 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
45%38%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +7%FOKUS · 4 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
60%67%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge FOKUS +7%FOKUS · 5 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
33%60%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +27%FOKUS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickFOKUS take Inferno
5. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
6. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
HEROIC 57%FOKUS 43%
The model gave 57% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
HEROIC 33%FOKUS 67%
The model gave 67% on FOKUS — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 66%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2