BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
42%47%
Gentle Mates · 15 mapsedge paiN +5%paiN · 11 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
59%50%
Gentle Mates · 13 mapsedge Gentle Mates +9%paiN · 4 maps
AncientpaiN ban
63%50%
Gentle Mates · 12 mapsedge Gentle Mates +13%paiN · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Gentle Mates · 10 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 2 maps
AnubisGentle Mates ban
50%56%
Gentle Mates · 4 mapsedge paiN +6%paiN · 5 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
57%50%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%paiN · 6 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%58%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge paiN +8%paiN · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Overpass
6. BanGentle Mates remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Gentle Mates 62%paiN 38%
The model gave 62% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by paiN.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Gentle Mates 42%paiN 58%
The model gave 58% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 61%
Series resultpaiN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2