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CCT 2026 Europe Series 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Privateer#226 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort ban
27%60%
megoshort · 7 mapsedge Privateer +33%Privateer · 1 map
Dust2Privateer ban
44%50%
megoshort · 5 mapsedge Privateer +6%Privateer · 2 maps
DefaultPrivateer pick
30%50%
megoshort · 6 mapsedge Privateer +20%Privateer · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
megoshort · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Privateer · 2 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
megoshort · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Privateer · 4 maps
AnubisPrivateer ban
60%50%
megoshort · 1 mapedge megoshort +10%Privateer · 0 maps
Cachemegoshort pick
50%40%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +10%Privateer · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanPrivateer remove Anubis
3. Pickmegoshort take Cache
4. PickPrivateer take Default
5. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
6. Banmegoshort remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
megoshort 47%Privateer 53%
The model gave 53% on Privateer — the map was taken by Privateer.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
megoshort 22%Privateer 78%
The model gave 78% on Privateer — the map was taken by megoshort.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
megoshort 50%Privateer 50%
The model gave 50% on megoshort — the map was taken by Privateer.
Model check result
Model favoritePrivateer · 57%
Series resultPrivateer 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3