Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
74%58%
fnatic · 15 mapsedge fnatic +16%Alliance · 8 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
54%60%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge Alliance +6%Alliance · 11 maps
CacheAlliance ban
75%29%
fnatic · 16 mapsedge fnatic +46%Alliance · 3 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
54%33%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +21%Alliance · 5 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
79%50%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +29%Alliance · 0 maps
MirageAlliance ban
36%50%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge Alliance +14%Alliance · 0 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanAlliance remove Cache
3. Pickfnatic take Anubis
4. PickAlliance take Inferno
5. BanAlliance remove Mirage
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (74% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
fnatic 89%Alliance 11%
The model gave 89% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
fnatic 41%Alliance 59%
The model gave 59% on Alliance — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 74%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2