Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
70%74%
Astralis · 16 mapsnearly even -4%fnatic · 15 maps
Cachefnatic pick
73%76%
Astralis · 11 mapsnearly even -3%fnatic · 17 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%57%
Astralis · 9 mapsedge fnatic +19%fnatic · 10 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
22%54%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge fnatic +32%fnatic · 9 maps
Miragefnatic ban
50%36%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge Astralis +14%fnatic · 10 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%79%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge fnatic +46%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
31%50%
Astralis · 9 mapsedge fnatic +19%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. Pickfnatic take Cache
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanAstralis remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (38% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Astralis 18%fnatic 82%
The model gave 82% on fnatic — the map was taken by Astralis.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Astralis 48%fnatic 52%
The model gave 52% on fnatic — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 78%
Series resultAstralis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2