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Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
60%71%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Astralis +11%Astralis · 17 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
38%73%
Luminosity · 4 mapsedge Astralis +35%Astralis · 11 maps
InfernoLuminosity ban
60%38%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Luminosity +22%Astralis · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%31%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Luminosity +19%Astralis · 9 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
33%30%
Luminosity · 8 mapsnearly even +3%Astralis · 6 maps
MirageLuminosity pick
78%50%
Luminosity · 5 mapsedge Luminosity +28%Astralis · 4 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
50%33%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +17%Astralis · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickLuminosity take Mirage
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Dust2
6. BanLuminosity remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Luminosity 80%Astralis 20%
The model gave 80% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Luminosity 16%Astralis 84%
The model gave 84% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Luminosity 69%Astralis 31%
The model gave 69% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 71%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3