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Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO5
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · loss 1:3
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Astralis#15 in the world · win 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
59%71%
Nemiga · 25 mapsedge Astralis +12%Astralis · 17 maps
CacheNemiga pick
72%75%
Nemiga · 14 mapsnearly even -3%Astralis · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
58%30%
Nemiga · 20 mapsedge Nemiga +28%Astralis · 6 maps
NukeAstralis pick
67%36%
Nemiga · 14 mapsedge Nemiga +31%Astralis · 10 maps
MirageNemiga pick
76%44%
Nemiga · 17 mapsedge Nemiga +32%Astralis · 5 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
74%33%
Nemiga · 15 mapsedge Nemiga +41%Astralis · 2 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%38%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +22%Astralis · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickNemiga take Mirage
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. PickNemiga take Cache
6. PickAstralis take Nuke
DeciderDust2 (58% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Nemiga 82%Astralis 18%
The model gave 82% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Astralis.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Nemiga 33%Astralis 67%
The model gave 67% on Astralis — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Nemiga 80%Astralis 20%
The model gave 80% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Nemiga 43%Astralis 57%
The model gave 57% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 75%
Series resultAstralis 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 4